thecoalman wrote: ↑
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:59 pm
In Washington State if you get shot, test positive for coronavirus and then die you are counted in death toll. The problem with these death tolls is many of these people have underlying issues. I know one person that has passed on from this. She was in her late 80's, had health issues going back years with difficulty breathing and walking for quite some time. She was oxygen tank for some time. In the Fall she fell and broke a hip, she caught ithe virus in the nursing home. Her immediate death may have been caused by the virus but it's really the underlying issues that killed her. Her time was short on this earth virus or no virus. It's difficult to fairly assess this.
Valid point but at least that person was tested and most probably corona just took away her chances of having a few more years.
I have doubts about your statement about being shot and then counted as a coronadeath (if infected).
In the case of George Floyd that could be the case because he was infected with corona and as such the probability of that having an influence is realistic (notwithstanding the fact that the registered cause of death was asphyxia but blockage of carotis due to the head torsion and knee pressure in the neck restricting blood supply to the brain certainly speeded up the outcome).
I know for fact that a person dying in a car accident or by being shot will have as cause of death the injuries due to the accident or to being shot, even if that person had corona : that person will be a statistic in the case count, but not in the death count.
In Belgium anyone at home or in hospital or in a care home for elderly people who died and had corona symptoms or corona was present in the location: was counted as a corona death. That was when tests where still in shortage. Since then some of those deaths have been tested retroactively (and the numbers where corrected to reflect this). But that still leaves about 1000 deaths which were not scientifically confirmed as corona related (and can't be anymore) but the data suggests those may not have been corona related at all.
Belgium (9 Mar - 17 May)
The number of deaths in Belgium has been 37% higher than average, with about 8,100 more people dying than usual.
Official Covid-19 deaths
Other excess deaths None overall
As to the underlying causes ... yes ... but without coronavirus those people would (statistically) die only next year or in a couple of years, and I'm quite certain the following year's statistics will reflect that with significantly lower than average death numbers in care centers (nursing homes) for the elderly.
The point I was trying to make (and not specifically directed at the US approach) is that all the numbers have to be seen in their true perspective (stage of the contamination, age related demographics, mobility between areas, containment capacities and of course testing capacities) e.g. numbers in Africa are still low in comparison to the rest of the world because it entered later, spread to secluded areas is slow because of lack of movement away from cities, shortage of testing capabilities and (this is in line for investigation) the genetic factor. But once it reaches an area with high population density: like what happened in the townships, numbers rise spectacularly (Brasil same thing).
Ironically It's a good thing that different countries have different containment strategies, and the world will evaluate how Italy , Spain and other countries in Europe fared, compared to Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand, Africa, South America and Asia. This is not about ridiculing a strategy (or the people who imposed a certain strategy) but about learning how to interpret the data correctly and how to cope with (especially regarding speed of response to) future epidemics which turn into pandemics .
And before this post I had 4643 as postcount. So now I'll see whether a post in this forum increments the postcount (or not).
added seeing there are 2 new posts made I'll just hold on to this for some time and save this as a text document and and continue doing what I'm supposed to do and add later
bubbathegimp wrote: ↑
Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:02 am
There's an old saying:
"There are lies, There are Damn Lies, Then there are statistics"...
Which is why statistical analysis should be done right and statements such as "By April when it gets a bit warmer, it will miraculously disappear." should be evaluated in the right context: in casu: made by (in this case) self proclaimed intelligentsia or
based on experience/knowledge.
Lumpy Burgertushie wrote: ↑
Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:13 pm
and the point of numbers is correct. which means that your numbers and/or where you got them is just as suspect as any other set of numbers.
And?? Unfortunately keeping track of the numbers is the only way something can be quantified. Fortunately in most Western countries data is checked and rechecked by independent investigators. And proper analysis of those numbers will unearth discrepancies if there are any (once there is enough statistical data).
EA117 wrote: ↑
Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:07 pm
That's a position I certainly hear articulated at lot. Aren't those underlying issues "what made it easy
for the virus to kill her", rather than "the virus is not what killed her"? If I can walk over an icy sidewalk just fine, but this same frail 94-year-old slips and falls on it due to their pre-existing coordination problems and susceptibility to complications from breaks, clots and head trauma; is the icy sidewalk "not a factor" in her death, just because "her time was short on this earth, sidewalk or no sidewalk"? Or did a preventable fall kill her, and not "the limited response her body could make post-falling."
I like the way you put this example because it shows precisely where the difficulties are (can be) in defining and registering the cause of death.
There are cases where corona positive patients die because of a fall, and they would have died without corona anyway due to the injuries sustained. Regardless of any precondition, the cause of death is traumatic injuries sustained during the fall, regardless of whether that person tested positive or negative for corona.That doesn't exclude that the risk of that person having fallen due to a corona induced shortness of breath may been was increased. Similarly if a person with corona takes an overdose of a medication and dies, the cause of death will related to the overdose and not to corona.
I think it's about I submit this before I forget to save or delete it by accident
And added after submission:
postcount = still 4643 so that answers my question in another topic.