The Coronavirus Topic

Discussion of non-phpBB related topics with other phpBB.com users.
Forum rules
General Discussion is a bonus forum for discussion of non-phpBB related topics with other phpBB.com users. All site rules apply.
User avatar
3Di
Former Team Member
Posts: 15704
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 11:09 pm
Location: Milan (IT) Frankfurt (DE)
Name: Marco
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by 3Di »

https://www.ilgiorno.it/milano/cronaca/ ... -1.5237020
Milan, 17 June 2020 - An antibody that can reduce mortality of the new coronavirus and at the same time accelerate the improvement of the respiratory picture in patients with Covid-19 pneumonia and systemic hyperinflammation. A new possible step forward in the road to improve therapies against Covid comes from a study by Irccs San Raffaele Hospital in Milan, published in the magazine 'The Lancet Rheumatology'.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04397497
User avatar
warmweer
Jr. Extension Validator
Posts: 4821
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2003 6:34 am
Location: Van Allen Bel ... gium

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by warmweer »

Coronavirus: What is the true death toll of the pandemic?

Finally a reliable article explaining some discrepancies in the death count (assigned to corona) of countries.
I actually started checking and analysing data when Trump tried to downplay the US numbers by comparing to other countries, one of them being Belgium, which at that time had about 3x the number of deaths per million inhabitants, compared to the US.

The problem with numbers is ... that they are just numbers, and without taking into account how those numbers are reached, not looking at the correlation between population density and the country wide differences in that population density, and not taking into account the stage of the epidemic in that particular region, one can interpret those numbers in a "favourable" way.

Looking at the US in particular, (date 2 May), there were ± 30.000 excess deaths not confirmed as Corona deaths (± 70.000). Granted, testing has been vamped up so the number of excess deaths probably won't increase as fast but this is just about as good as proof can get that the true scope of the pandemic is a lot higher than the numbers state.
User avatar
bubbathegimp
Registered User
Posts: 159
Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:02 pm
Location: Off Plumb
Name: Bubba
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by bubbathegimp »

There's an old saying:
"There are lies, There are Damn Lies, Then there are statistics"...
User avatar
thecoalman
Community Team Member
Community Team Member
Posts: 3789
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2004 3:52 am
Location: Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by thecoalman »

In Washington State if you get shot, test positive for coronavirus and then die you are counted in death toll. The problem with these death tolls is many of these people have underlying issues. I know one person that has passed on from this. She was in her late 80's, had health issues going back years with difficulty breathing and walking for quite some time. She was oxygen tank for some time. In the Fall she fell and broke a hip, she caught ithe virus in the nursing home. Her immediate death may have been caused by the virus but it's really the underlying issues that killed her. Her time was short on this earth virus or no virus. It's difficult to fairly assess this.
“Results! Why, man, I have gotten a lot of results! I have found several thousand things that won’t work.”

Attributed - Thomas Edison
User avatar
Lumpy Burgertushie
Registered User
Posts: 67926
Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 3:11 am
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by Lumpy Burgertushie »

and the point of numbers is correct. which means that your numbers and/or where you got them is just as suspect as any other set of numbers.


robert
User avatar
John connor
Registered User
Posts: 2539
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2014 5:14 pm
Location: U S Of A
Name: Aaron
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by John connor »

Yeah, that's what I have heard and read. They lump everyone into a stat that says you died of Captain Trips regardless of whether that was the case or not.

Now the numbers wouldn't be so bad if some governors didn't throw COVID-19 infected people into nursing homes.
User avatar
EA117
Registered User
Posts: 1693
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:23 am
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by EA117 »

thecoalman wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:59 pm
In Washington State if you get shot, test positive for coronavirus and then die you are counted in death toll.
Without any other information, indeed its hard to say that should be counted any other way.

People walk out of the hospital after being shot all the time. If instead they contracted a staph infection during their hospitalization and they never recover, are we going to say "well, but he had a gunshot wound... the MRSA contamination in this hospital shouldn't be considered."

We don't know if they would have definitely died or recovered from staph alone. We don't know if they would have definitely died or recovered from the gunshot alone. We do know it's harder to recover when the body is fighting multiple things at once. We do know they died fighting both. It wouldn't be a "staph was not involved" death, just like it wouldn't be a "the coronavirus was not involved" death if that was the infection.

None of this seems like it would be particularly new, and medical professionals and examiners have needed to make these kinds of judgements all along. I have to believe that both their experience and accreditation gives them more information about how to address these questions than my layperson's opinion. It seem like just our -- the laypeople's -- desire to politicize, dispute or deny the numbers which is unique in this current situation.

thecoalman wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:59 pm
Her immediate death may have been caused by the virus but it's really the underlying issues that killed her.
That's a position I certainly hear articulated at lot. Aren't those underlying issues "what made it easy for the virus to kill her", rather than "the virus is not what killed her"? If I can walk over an icy sidewalk just fine, but this same frail 94-year-old slips and falls on it due to their pre-existing coordination problems and susceptibility to complications from breaks, clots and head trauma; is falling on an icy sidewalk "not the cause" in her death, just because "her time was short on this earth, sidewalk or no sidewalk"? Or did a preventable fall kill her, and not "the limited response her body could make post-falling."
User avatar
warmweer
Jr. Extension Validator
Posts: 4821
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2003 6:34 am
Location: Van Allen Bel ... gium

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by warmweer »

thecoalman wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:59 pm
In Washington State if you get shot, test positive for coronavirus and then die you are counted in death toll. The problem with these death tolls is many of these people have underlying issues. I know one person that has passed on from this. She was in her late 80's, had health issues going back years with difficulty breathing and walking for quite some time. She was oxygen tank for some time. In the Fall she fell and broke a hip, she caught ithe virus in the nursing home. Her immediate death may have been caused by the virus but it's really the underlying issues that killed her. Her time was short on this earth virus or no virus. It's difficult to fairly assess this.
Valid point but at least that person was tested and most probably corona just took away her chances of having a few more years.

I have doubts about your statement about being shot and then counted as a coronadeath (if infected).
In the case of George Floyd that could be the case because he was infected with corona and as such the probability of that having an influence is realistic (notwithstanding the fact that the registered cause of death was asphyxia but blockage of carotis due to the head torsion and knee pressure in the neck restricting blood supply to the brain certainly speeded up the outcome).

I know for fact that a person dying in a car accident or by being shot will have as cause of death the injuries due to the accident or to being shot, even if that person had corona : that person will be a statistic in the case count, but not in the death count.

In Belgium anyone at home or in hospital or in a care home for elderly people who died and had corona symptoms or corona was present in the location: was counted as a corona death. That was when tests where still in shortage. Since then some of those deaths have been tested retroactively (and the numbers where corrected to reflect this). But that still leaves about 1000 deaths which were not scientifically confirmed as corona related (and can't be anymore) but the data suggests those may not have been corona related at all.
Belgium (9 Mar - 17 May)

The number of deaths in Belgium has been 37% higher than average, with about 8,100 more people dying than usual.
Official Covid-19 deaths
9,115
Other excess deaths None overall
As to the underlying causes ... yes ... but without coronavirus those people would (statistically) die only next year or in a couple of years, and I'm quite certain the following year's statistics will reflect that with significantly lower than average death numbers in care centers (nursing homes) for the elderly.

The point I was trying to make (and not specifically directed at the US approach) is that all the numbers have to be seen in their true perspective (stage of the contamination, age related demographics, mobility between areas, containment capacities and of course testing capacities) e.g. numbers in Africa are still low in comparison to the rest of the world because it entered later, spread to secluded areas is slow because of lack of movement away from cities, shortage of testing capabilities and (this is in line for investigation) the genetic factor. But once it reaches an area with high population density: like what happened in the townships, numbers rise spectacularly (Brasil same thing).

Ironically It's a good thing that different countries have different containment strategies, and the world will evaluate how Italy , Spain and other countries in Europe fared, compared to Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand, Africa, South America and Asia. This is not about ridiculing a strategy (or the people who imposed a certain strategy) but about learning how to interpret the data correctly and how to cope with (especially regarding speed of response to) future epidemics which turn into pandemics .

And before this post I had 4643 as postcount. So now I'll see whether a post in this forum increments the postcount (or not).

added seeing there are 2 new posts made I'll just hold on to this for some time and save this as a text document and and continue doing what I'm supposed to do and add later
bubbathegimp wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:02 am
There's an old saying:
"There are lies, There are Damn Lies, Then there are statistics"...
Which is why statistical analysis should be done right and statements such as "By April when it gets a bit warmer, it will miraculously disappear." should be evaluated in the right context: in casu: made by (in this case) self proclaimed intelligentsia or based on experience/knowledge.
Lumpy Burgertushie wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:13 pm
and the point of numbers is correct. which means that your numbers and/or where you got them is just as suspect as any other set of numbers.
And?? Unfortunately keeping track of the numbers is the only way something can be quantified. Fortunately in most Western countries data is checked and rechecked by independent investigators. And proper analysis of those numbers will unearth discrepancies if there are any (once there is enough statistical data).
EA117 wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:07 pm
That's a position I certainly hear articulated at lot. Aren't those underlying issues "what made it easy for the virus to kill her", rather than "the virus is not what killed her"? If I can walk over an icy sidewalk just fine, but this same frail 94-year-old slips and falls on it due to their pre-existing coordination problems and susceptibility to complications from breaks, clots and head trauma; is the icy sidewalk "not a factor" in her death, just because "her time was short on this earth, sidewalk or no sidewalk"? Or did a preventable fall kill her, and not "the limited response her body could make post-falling."
I like the way you put this example because it shows precisely where the difficulties are (can be) in defining and registering the cause of death.
There are cases where corona positive patients die because of a fall, and they would have died without corona anyway due to the injuries sustained. Regardless of any precondition, the cause of death is traumatic injuries sustained during the fall, regardless of whether that person tested positive or negative for corona.That doesn't exclude that the risk of that person having fallen due to a corona induced shortness of breath may been was increased. Similarly if a person with corona takes an overdose of a medication and dies, the cause of death will related to the overdose and not to corona.

I think it's about I submit this before I forget to save or delete it by accident ;)

And added after submission:
postcount = still 4643 so that answers my question in another topic.
User avatar
thecoalman
Community Team Member
Community Team Member
Posts: 3789
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2004 3:52 am
Location: Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by thecoalman »

warmweer wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:31 pm
Valid point but at least that person was tested and most probably corona just took away her chances of having a few more years.
It wasn't a few more years. Late 80's, somewhat overweight, on oxygen and could barely walk before she fell and broke her hip. I doubt they were able to get her out of the bed much if at all and when you are that age and lose mobility even for short time it doesn't come back.
I have doubts about your statement about being shot and then counted as a coronadeath (if infected).
Google is your friend.
“Results! Why, man, I have gotten a lot of results! I have found several thousand things that won’t work.”

Attributed - Thomas Edison
User avatar
warmweer
Jr. Extension Validator
Posts: 4821
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2003 6:34 am
Location: Van Allen Bel ... gium

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by warmweer »

thecoalman wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:45 pm
I have doubts about your statement about being shot and then counted as a coronadeath (if infected).
Google is your friend.
OK, I had googled, and googled again but get no results. I accept you've found a case (or cases) (and apologise because I read it as a general practice) but if this is truly general practice then those cases should and possibly will be reviewed at some time. However the number of errors like that probably won't have much influence percentagewise on the total picture. (which BTW is why I don't have much faith in the data from certain countries - and I'm not referring to the data from the US : the discrepancy in that data (and that of other countries) can be estimated (with valid statistical methods) since the procedures used are transparent.

Anyway, my point remains the same: the numbers are needed in order to be able to evaluate the situation (and the measures taken).
It's easy to blame the numbers but serious analysts will scrutinise the data sampling methodology and confidence intervals will be calculated.

It's the case of the lawyer defending the position that no one can drown in a pool of water with average depth of 10 cm, yet a week later he did. (it's a classic joke in Belgium, and probably in other countries as well, about certain lawyers defending the indefensible).
User avatar
thecoalman
Community Team Member
Community Team Member
Posts: 3789
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2004 3:52 am
Location: Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by thecoalman »

warmweer wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:29 pm
OK, I had googled, and googled again but get no results.
https://www.google.com/search?q=washing ... oronavirus
Anyway, my point remains the same: the numbers are needed in order to be able to evaluate the situation (and the measures taken).
It's easy to blame the numbers but serious analysts will scrutinise the data sampling methodology and confidence intervals will be calculated.
Anybody testing for this virus need to be counted somehow, you can never have too much data. My point is you need to weight that data. A healthy 20 year old that has died from this certainly has more weight than 90 year old women with existing health conditions. If you are simply lumping everything together such as someone shot with a gun it's meaningless.
“Results! Why, man, I have gotten a lot of results! I have found several thousand things that won’t work.”

Attributed - Thomas Edison
User avatar
warmweer
Jr. Extension Validator
Posts: 4821
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2003 6:34 am
Location: Van Allen Bel ... gium

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by warmweer »

thecoalman wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:00 pm
Anybody testing for this virus need to be counted somehow, you can never have too much data. My point is you need to weight that data. A healthy 20 year old that has died from this certainly has more weight than 90 year old women with existing health conditions. If you are simply lumping everything together such as someone shot with a gun it's meaningless.
I don't disagree with that, but the guy who died in a car accident and had corona, is a corona case, but not a corona death. I haven't got the data accessible right now (it's way past bedtime for me anyway) but in Belgium anyone who died in a hospital or care centre where corona was present or that person who died had corona symptoms - was automatically classified as a corona death. Later test showed that a non-neglectable percentage of those who had corona-like symptoms were not necessarily infected and were thus wrongly added to the corona death count (and cases).
The number of deaths in Belgium has been 37% higher than average, with about 8,100 more people dying than usual.
Official Covid-19 deaths
9,115
Other excess deaths None overall
Belgium is one of the world's worst-affected countries when it comes to the number of deaths recorded in relation to the size of its population.
Belgian officials say this is because of the way they are measuring deaths from Covid-19.
The country records confirmed Covid-19 deaths in hospitals and care homes, but the official tally also includes deaths in care homes that are suspected, not confirmed, as Covid-19 cases.
This is reflected in Belgium's mortality statistics - with coronavirus casualties accounting for all of its excess deaths after the first few weeks.
Belgium recorded some excess deaths at the start of the pandemic above those officially put down to the virus.
But over the course of Belgium's first wave, there were no excess deaths that could not be attributed to official Covid-19 deaths.
This means that, overall, Belgium had no other excess deaths during the period covered by the outbreak.
User avatar
John connor
Registered User
Posts: 2539
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2014 5:14 pm
Location: U S Of A
Name: Aaron
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by John connor »

Watch this

And read this

Two doctors of the same opinion and that's what I have been hearing about the CDC guidelines. It doesn't take a genius to know that if the government is involved the whole thing is rife with BS and failure.
User avatar
warmweer
Jr. Extension Validator
Posts: 4821
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2003 6:34 am
Location: Van Allen Bel ... gium

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by warmweer »

John connor wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:19 pm
Watch this

And read this

Two doctors of the same opinion and that's what I have been hearing about the CDC guidelines. It doesn't take a genius to know that if the government is involved the whole thing is rife with BS and failure.
Incidentaly there was an article (can't find it though) on a reputable site (can't remember which) comparing statistics and finding that most countries (one of them being the USA) did not do that. About 5 countries did exactly that (one of them being Belgium) and were praised for doing their best to not underestimate the death count). (IIRC the title of the article was in the lines of: Countries that have their numbers right.)

Frankly it seems like you're trying to state that the numbers are purposely inflated and suggesting the situation isn't as serious as it "looks".
User avatar
John connor
Registered User
Posts: 2539
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2014 5:14 pm
Location: U S Of A
Name: Aaron
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Topic

Post by John connor »

Well, don't take my word for it FFS. Read and watch what two doctors are saying. I posted this since I heard about this way back in March.

If you feel like you're more superior to a doctor who's writing death certificates, then that's your problem.
Post Reply

Return to “General Discussion”